2022-2023 American Basketball Preview

This will be the last season for the AAC as we have come to know it. Leaving in 2023 is basketball power Houston, as well as Cincinnati and UCF. Incoming will be UAB, North Texas, FAU, Charlotte, UTSA, and Rice all from CUSA. The position this conference has occupied since its inception as not quite top 6 material, but in a tier to themselves firmly at 7 above everyone else, is likely to change moving forward. They will have a chance to go out as a top 6 conference this year though as they could be better than the Pac 12.

Here are our national ranks for the last ride, and you can see the tiers we have these teams on. In the AAC there is quite a disparate range between 1 and 11.

1-363 ranking

AAC Basketball Standings

		National Rank
4	Houston	AAC
40	Memphis	AAC
49	Cincinnati	AAC
55	Tulane	AAC
91	Temple	AAC
92	UCF	AAC
93	Wichita State	AAC
115	SMU	AAC
129	USF	AAC
168	Tulsa	AAC
224	East Carolina	AAC

Bracketology

Instead of an All-Conference team, I?ve listed the Top Returning Players by Peak Adjusted Efficiency for SOS. Most will likely come from this list anyway, but the awards are more team driven. I?m more interested in who is doing the most when they are on the court. The players can?t control the team that was put around them. If they are putting up tangible numbers at top efficiency per possession on bad teams, that is more impressive to me. It?s coming under more pressure and game planning for them, with less viable options around them to take the pressure off. This list encompasses the players that have been the best on a D1 court going into the season.

ADJ eff		Rank
11	Kendric Davis	Memphis
37	Kevin Cross	Tulane
41	Deandre Williams	Memphis
47	Mark Sasser	Houston
56	Tramon Mark	Houston
97	Jalen Cook	Tulane
113	Keyshawn Bryant	USF
134	Kalu Ezikpe	Cincinnati
213	Michael Durr	UCF
217	Samuel Williamson	SMU
224	Jamal Sheed	Houston
225	Jeremiah Davenport	Cincinnati
226	David DeJulius	Cincinnati
257	Tyler Harris	USF
263	Keonte Kennedy	Memphis
288	Landers Nolley	Cincinnati

(Last year?s NET, Seed, and Tournament Finish are on the top header line for reference. Deep bench players are not listed, only those in the projected rotation. I also included player ADJ eff rankings. ADJ eff Rankings and qualifying explanation here.)

1. Houston

Houston	2 NET	5 seed	PER	E8
Reggie Chaney	6-8, 225	3.2ppg, 2.2rpg	16.5	Gr
Jarace Walker	6-7, 220	5*		Fr
Tramon Mark	6-5, 190	10.1ppg, 2.4apg	23.2	Jr
Mark Sasser	6-1,190	17.7ppg, 2.6apg	23.7	Sr
Jamal Sheed	6-1, 190	10.0ppg, 5.8apg	17.5	Jr
J’Wan Roberts	6-7, 230	3.2ppg, 4.9rpg	17.7	Jr
Mylik Wilson	6-3, 175	2.5ppg, 1.7apg(@Texas Tech)	13.7	Jr
Terrance Arceneaux	6-6, 180	4*		Fr
Ja’Vier Francis	6-8, 225	1.2ppg, 0.9rpg	17.3	So

Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS	Returning Players in the Top 300
47	Mark Sasser
56	Tramon Mark
224	Jamal Sheed

This team doesn?t appear as imposing without Josh Carlton on paper, but what we know in practice is they seem to have essentially a plug-and-play system. They have demonstrated that ability to replace almost anyone over time, even in season, despite some bad injury luck over multiple seasons now. The way they attack the boards and have a baseline skill and style of play up and down the roster gives them a unique identity. Any shooting or other skill around that that develops is a bonus to build on and help take them to the next level.

This is the #2 team in average NET over the 4 years NET has existed, so it?s hard to bet against Kelvin Sampson doing what they do and with this identity. They return Sasser after being injured last season to eat usage, and still have their steady stream of grit and grind bigs. Their likely floor seems to be around the top 15, and if the shooting Sasser and Marks showed off in small samples before the injury becomes real, their ceiling is #1. I believe that?s a little too much to expect right now when their career baseline true shooting is sub .500%. This is still a good team that knows what they do well.

Houston had a more impressive recruiting haul than normal as well. Walker averaged about 16ppg 7rpg at IMG and watching some of his videos he certainly looks the part of a Houston big. If they are going to start landing top 10 studs and multiple players in the top 40 players from now on to play in this proven Sampson system, watch out.

2. Memphis

Memphis	31 NET	9 seed		2R
Malcolm Dandridge	6-9, 232	4.4ppg, 2.6rpg	15.8	Sr
Deandre Williams	6-9, 205	11.1ppg, 5.8rpg	21.7	Gr
Damaria Franklin	6-4, 210	17.8ppg, 6.9rpg (@UIC)	20.8	Sr
Keonte Kennedy	6-5 180	14.1ppg, 6.1rpg(@UTEP)	18.8	Sr
Kendric Davis	5-11, 190	19.4ppg, 4.4apg(@SMU)	23.8	Sr
Elijah McCadden	6-4, 210	11.7ppg, 4.6rpg(@GSU)	14.7	Gr
Kaodirichi Akobundu-Ehiogu	6-9, 200	4.7ppg, 4.8rpg(@UTA)	18.5	So
Jayden Hardaway	6-5, 195	2.9ppg, 1.0rpg	13.1	Sr
Chandler Lawson	6-8, 205	1.6ppg, 2.2rpg	14.2	Sr
Johnaton Lawson	6-6, 185	redshirt		Fr

Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS	Returning Players in the Top 300
11	Kendric Davis
41	Deandre Williams
263	Keonte Kennedy

(Edit: Reports are Akot didn’t show and Alex Lomax came back for year 5. In Damaria Franklin out Akot which is equivalent or better for Memphis IMO. )

This team only had Kendric Davis committed in late May. Getting Deandre Williams to pull his name from the draft was crucial and I believe, helped eventually land Akot and Kennedy. Williams was never going to get drafted by the NBA, and there isn’t much of a chance at 26 years old with his build that he even will have much interest invested in him. He should make more money at Memphis with their FedEx money as desperate as they were for players than he could anywhere else in pro basketball around the world. This man does have to be somewhat sick of sitting in a classroom at his age, so I couldn’t have blamed him if he left.

It did however seem to be a harder process to get players than in recent years when the NCAA tournament isn’t assured with potential probation hanging over them. They probably saved disaster by landing Kendric Davis somehow. That was a huge get and I think Davis has the potential to be the best non-post player in the entire nation. He’s proven he can pretty much carry a team to the top 50.

Penny Hardaway certainly isn’t known as a micromanager so Davis will have all the freedom he wants to do whatever he wants. In this case, I don’t think it’s even that terrible because they should want the ball in Davis’s hands with him carrying the team. He’s almost all they have, but with Williams back, that’s at least a partnership and has the makings of a top 35 type team even with little else around them which is the case. The late additions of Akot and Kennedy cement that in my opinion.

I don’t think Akot or Kennedy are either amazing but they can be solid role players around Davis and Williams, Akot has proven that on a good team. He just doesn’t do a lot of stuff other than being a big wing that can get a hand up and make a few threes. McCadden doesn’t seem like a Memphis-level guy, but he’s needed at this point just as a warm body, I do however like the Akobundu-Ehiogu addition. He’s young and blocks shots at one of the highest rates in the nation. It took a while but they now have an experienced team with decent depth. Davis gives them a chance at the NCAA if the NCAA allows that.

3. Cincinnati

Cincinnati	96 NET
Kalu Ezikpe	6-8, 235	11.3ppg, 7.1rpg(@ODU)	22.7
Landers Nolley	6-7, 220	13.1ppg, 4.1rpg(2021@Memphis)	16.2
Jeremiah Davenport	6-7, 205	13.4ppg, 5.5rpg	18.1	Sr
Rob Phinisee	6-1, 187	7.1ppg, 2.9apg(2021@Indiana)	9.3
David DeJulius	6-0, 195	14.5ppg, 2.6apg	17.5	Gr
Mika Adams-Woods	6-3, 185	8.6ppg, 3.1apg	12.2	Sr
John Newman	6-5, 207	6.9ppg, 4.2rpg	12.3	Gr
Viktor Lakhin	6-11, 228	4.2ppg, 3.5rpg	19.5	Jr
Ody Oguama	6-9, 225	4.2ppg, 4.2rpg	16.4	Sr
Sage Tolentino	7-0, 215	4*		Fr

Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS	Returning Players in the Top 300
134	Kalu Ezikpe
225	Jeremiah Davenport
226	David DeJulius
288	Landers Nolley

Last season wasn’t good, but it was Wes Miller’s first. I like this roster both with quality and depth. The transfer adds were strong, and he returns a nice core with Davenport, DeJulius, and Adam’s-Woods. It took Miller a few years at the start to get some on-the-job training at UNCG, but by the end of his tenure there he had figured the job out.

UNCG had several teams in the 50-80 range by the end. He did more at UNCG with a lot fewer resources than he has at Cincinnati. I think we?ll see them start to trend up, it just feels natural with the experience and reinforcements. After a year of adjustment to the American Conference and the level Miller needs to recruit at and just more familiarity with what it takes. All the first-year stress of going to new places and settling in that can derail some starts are at least behind Miller now.

4. Tulane

Tulane	94 NET
Kevin Cross	6-8, 240	13.9ppg, 6.8rpg	23.6	Jr
Sion James	6-5, 185	7.4ppg, 4.3rpg	11.8	So
Jaylen Forbes	6-5, 185	16.5ppg, 5.4rpg	17.4	Jr
Collin Holloway	6-6, 220	9.2ppg, 2.9rpg(@Georgetown)	12	Jr
Jalen Cook	6-0, 205	18.0ppg, 3.5apg	20.7	So
Jadan Coleman	6-4, 170	6.3ppg, 1.0rpg	15.3	So
R.J. McGee	6-5, 220	4.0ppg, 2.5rpg	12.8	Jr

Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS	Returning Players in the Top 300
37	Kevin Cross
97	Jalen Cook

Ron Hunter took over a 4-27 (0-18) team just 3 seasons ago and has engineered an incredible rebuild. It’s been driven mostly by his work in the portal with players like Cook, Cross, and Forbes. He’s added another proven P6 player this offseason in Collin Holloway and was able to protect his home turf and not lose anyone of value in the portal this year as he did with Jelly Walker last season. That was a setback, as was the Teshaun Hightower murder arrest two seasons ago. Even with the setbacks, this has still been an impressive and quick turnaround coming from the depths they were.

As for the team, Tulane likes to play small, and they aren’t particularly good on defense (#221) and were one of the worst rebounding teams in the nation. Being able to play small and still effectively is dependent on Kevin Cross. He’s probably the most important player on the team, even above Jalen Cook. They can’t afford to lose him for any time this season and survive with so much of their identity tied into his passing and being able to man the post mostly by himself.

5. Temple

Temple	111 NET
Nick Jourdain	6-8	6.6ppg, 5.3rpg	14.8	So
Jahlil White	6-7	7.4ppg, 6.0rpg	12.3	So
Damian Dunn	6-5	14.9ppg, 4.2rpg	16.1	So
Khalif Battle	6-5	21.4ppg, 3.9rpg	26	Jr
Hysier Miller	6-1	4.9ppg, 1.7apg	9.4	So
Zach Hicks	6-7	8.3ppg, 4.1rpg	16.3	So
Shane Dezonie	6-5	2.4ppg, 1.6rpg(@Vanderbilt)	7.8	So
Kur Jongkuch	6-9	8.9ppg, 8.6rpg(@N. Colorado)	17.1	Sr

The best news for Temple this offseason is the return of Khalif Battle who only made it through 7 games last season. That was unfortunate as Battle was off to an incredible start, averaging 21.4ppg. If Battle had played more games last year and maintained that efficiency, he would have been one of the best players in the country returning. Perhaps he still is, but I don’t think there is enough evidence with only 7 games to say that definitively. While he did average 15ppg the prior season he was highly inefficient with a .486 true shooting, while the 7 games and 21ppg were fueled by an unsustainable .681% true shooting. Battle is a good player and he will help this team but I do not think he is the numbers he put up. It was more of a noisy small sample.

In Battle’s stead, Damian Dunn filled most of the usage Battle vacated, and Temple had a respectable season with a 111 NET. Dunn wasn’t that efficient, but he was able to generate enough offense to let Temple’s above-average defense keep them in games, and will have help to take the pressure off him now. I believe the continuity between Dunn and most of the important role players around him will give Temple a nice baseline while most other teams are working with lots of new players. They did add a couple of transfers from Vanderbilt and Northern Colorado as well. Jongkuch from Northern Colorado will have a chance to start having the best size of all of Temple’s options. Year 4 of the Aaron McKie tenure should see Temple getting back to levels they are more accustomed to throughout its history.

6. UCF

UCF	99 NET
Michael Durr	7-0, 250	8.8ppg, 7.9rpg(2021@USF)	17.8	Sr
CJ Walker	6-8, 200	8.3ppg, 5.7rpg	15.9	Sr
Brandon Suggs	6-6, 205	10.1ppg, 4.1rpg(ECU)	15	Jr
Ithiel Horton	6-3, 200	9.8ppg, 2.7rpg(Pitt)	11.1	Sr
Darius Johnson	6-1, 190	6.4ppg, 3.0apg	9.6	So
C.J. Kelly	6-5, 190	10.1ppg, 4.1rpg(@UMass)	13.9	Sr
Jayhlon Young	6-2, 175	15.9ppg, 3.0apg(JUCO)		So
Tyem Freeman	6-5, 213	5.0ppg, 2.1rpg	18.2	Jr
Lahat Thioune	6-10, 243	3.8ppg, 3.4rpg(Utah)	16.9	S

Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS	Returning Players in the Top 300
213	Michael Durr

UCF doesn’t have much star power but they do have good coaching and a pretty solid team that makes sense. It’s just solid all around. The only player to make the top 300 returners in adjusted efficiency was Micheal Durr who barely played at Indiana last season. #1 when you have Trayce Jackson-Davis and Race Thompson there is a good reason for that. #2 who cares when we know Durr can play effectively in the AAC. He’s put up solid efficiency vs a strong SOS before. He also anchored a #67th defense at USF during his sophomore season.

The fact Durr didn’t play because he was behind All-Big Ten players last year doesn’t change any of that for me. He should be a valuable player back in the AAC. He will be essential, and his presence around the rim will allow Walker to roam and use his incredible athletic ability to disrupt shots. Suggs is pretty solid at everything and Horton brings the shooting. The only question I have is at Point Guard both with Johnson starting and with the depth. I would have liked to have seen that position upgraded especially given the importance. They can get by with Johnson, but the most upside likely lies with JUCO Jayhlon Young.

7. Wichita State

Wichita State	87 NET
James Rojas	6-8, 220	5.4ppg, 2.4rpg(@Alabama)	15.9	Sr
Gus Okafor	6-6, 230	14.6ppg, 6.4rpg(@Longwood)	19.1	Sr
Colby Rogers	6-5, 190	14.2ppg, 2.2rpg(@Siena)	15.1	Sr
Criag Porter	6-2, 185	7.3ppg, 4.9rpg	17.4	Sr
Xavier Bell	6-3, 178	11.0ppg, 1.6apg(@Drexel)	14.3	Jr
Quincy Ballard	6-11, 240	0.9ppg, 1.2rpg(@Florida St)	17.6	So
Kenny Pohto	6-11, 232	5.4ppg, 2.7rpg	18.6	So
Jakwon Walton	6-7, 200	13.5ppg, 4.4rpg(JUCO)		So
Jaron Pierre Jr.	6-5, 185	9.9ppg, 3.1rpg(@USM)	8.1	So

What a difference, a couple of years can make. Wichita State had one of the best coaches in the business, and then he snapped on a player, and it all came to an end. Even before that event brought it all crashing down, fans of Wichita State were concerned about the attrition within the program. Unfortunately, even with the coaching change, that hasn’t stopped. Gone are most of the important players from last year’s team.

Isaac Brown did a pretty admirable job picking up the pieces and restocking them in the portal. Of the few returners, Craig Porter and Kenny Pohto should play bigger roles. Both seem capable of taking on more. There are a lot of new additions that have proven D1 experience. I should be enough to keep Wichita State in the top 100 and competitive. The day’s single-digit seeds in the NCAA and top 20 finishes are probably finished without Gregg Marshall, though.

8. SMU

SMU	53 NET
Xavier Foster	7-0, 228	4.0ppg, 1.7rpg (@Iowa St)	23.9	So
Samuell Williamson	6-7, 210	9.6ppg 8.1rpg(@Louisville)	15.9	Sr
Ricardo Wright	6-4, 185	13.6ppg, 4.2rpg(@Marist)	15.4	Jr
Zach Nutall	6-3, 185	6.8ppg, 3.7rpg	9.5	Sr
Zhuric Phelps	6-3, 175	3.8ppg, 1.9rpg	9.9	So
Jefferson Koulibaly	6-3, 180	2.6ppg, 0.9rpg(@Washing St)	7.1	So
Efe Odigie	6-9, 255	11.5ppg, 6.7rpg(@Troy)	18.7	Sr
Keon Ambrose-Hylton	6-8, 210	1.0ppg, 0.8rpg(@Alabama)	6.6	Jr
Mo Njie	6-10, 245	6.6ppg, 5.3rpg(@EMU)	13.7	So

217	Samuel Williamson

In a move, I derided this spring SMU fired Tim Jankovich. Jank was coming off a season he SMU was the last team left out of the NCAA’s and the #1 seed in the NIT. He had Kendric Davis likely returning as well who I think is the best guard in the nation. Jankovich had gone 125-64 (661%) of his games at SMU and had been to the NIT the last 2 seasons. I know SMU has spent a lot of money building its program since the Larry Brown era, but they have short memories of how bad it can get at SMU before that. To fire Jankovich for the privilege of paying Rob Lanier 2 million a year and making him one of the highest-paid coaches in the nation is baffling. This is the same coach that went 6-24 in his 4th season at Siena. His two NCAA’s are auto bids teams that weren’t even that good, and one had a losing record.

The team has suffered in this transition, losing multiple important players to transfer. I do respect the fact Lanier tried to stem the tide with 7 transfers. There is no need to kick the can down the road when the portal exists. At least try to get some proven older players in the age of the super senior because you need them to win. That said I didn’t find the 7 transfers he added to be that impactful.

I have SMU ranked 115th so at least the recovery work this spring should keep SMU out of the 200+ ranking suckitude. I give him credit for saving the season from that level, but this is what you fired Jankovich for? A team with Davis was one spot out of an NCAA. SMU prints cash and has one of the most ambitious NIL groups, they would have certainly had a shot to keep him under Jank.

It’s a complete step back to over pay a coach that barely .500 in his career and fell flat on his face at a low major when you are supposed to be rolling in year 4. That’s hard to get past but hopefully, he’s gotten a lot better since then. I don’t think a 165 NET NCAA Auto bid Georgia State year proves that. As for the team itself, 115th may even be a little high. I do think Williamson can be good and I do expect Nutall to be a lot better than he was last season. I don’t think much else around them is good. Foster put up effective numbers in the brief time he played, but it was only 7 games and 55 minutes.

9. USF

USF	245 NET
Russel Tchewa	7-0	8.0 ppg, 5.7 rpg	13.1	Sr
Corey Walker Jr.	6-8	5.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg	19.8	So
Keyshawn Bryant	6-6	14.4ppg, 5.4rpg(@S. Carolina 2021)	18.9	Sr
Selton Miguel	6-4	7.2 ppg, 4.0 rpg(@Kansas St)	9.5	Jr
Tyler Harris	5-9	8.8 ppg, 1.7 rpg (@Memphis)	15.1	Sr
Jamir Chaplin	6-5	8.7 ppg, 4.4 rpg	14.9	Sr
Sam Hines Jr.	6-6	3.5 ppg, 3.5 rpg	6.8	Jr
DJ Patrick	6-6	3.9 ppg, 1.3 rpg	5.8	Jr
Jake Boggs	6-7	3.1 ppg, 2.3 rpg	8.6	Sr

113	Keyshawn Bryant
257	Tyler Harris

Jankovich gets fired, and Brian Gregory survives, even after going 8-23 (3-15) and his 3rd straight losing season. His chair has to be hot, right? I will give him the credit, he was able to attract the level of transfers I wouldn’t have expected him to be able to get this off season. We have them ranked #129 so that would represent a massive improvement from #245 NET last season. It might actually be enough to save his job.

This team is still light on shooters but they do have some athletes that at least look like AAC caliber. Keyshawn Bryant averaged 14.4ppg, 5.3rpg with an 18.9 PER at South Carolina two seasons ago. That’s a legit stud and while he didn’t play as much and wasn’t as good last year I don’t think you can discredit the ceiling he’s already shown. He should be one of the better players in the AAC. We know Tyler Harris can play in the AAC, he was a valuable player in Memphis just last season. Selton Miguel was a pretty decent role player for a P6 team as well at Kansas State. That’s a pretty good haul this season for a coach seemingly toast.

USF has a pretty solid top 6, the depth after that is questionable though. I expect Corey Walker to get more opportunities this season. He has the pedigree and was effective in role-player minutes. He was one of the few bright spots that should have been playing more.

10. Tulsa

Tulsa	180 NET
Nikita Konstantynovskyi	6-10, 235	2.0ppg, 2.7rpg	13.8	Jr
Tim Dalger	6-7, 210	4.7ppg, 2.9rpg	10.6	Jr
Sam Griffin	6-3, 180	14.6ppg, 1.7rpg	15.3	Jr
Anthony Pritchard	6-3, 170	4.4ppg, 2.6rpg	8.6	So
Brandon Betson	6-1, 180	14.4ppg, 2.9apg(@Chicago St)	11.7	Sr
Keyshawn Embery-Simpson	6-5, 210	3.6ppg,1.3apg	6.1	Sr
Bryant Selebangue	6-9, 215	12.8ppg, 10.3rpg(JUCO)		Fr

Out is Frank Haith just a couple of seasons after winning a share of the AAC regular season title, it is Eric Konkol. Konkol had a good run at La Tech, and although he never took them to the NCAA they have averaged a Top 85 finish, which is pretty good given their resources and conference status. He leaves an underfunded rural public school for a well-funded small private urban school. It will be interesting to see how the transition goes.

Konkol is a good coach, but he has never gone in the portal very hard, which would be my concern given the changing landscape of college basketball moving forward. Even this offseason when they needed an influx of talent, and he was forced to dip a toe in, he only came up with an inefficient player from the 340th NET Chicago State team. Just a guy that soaked up usage and didn’t do much with it, adding him isn’t exactly doing much.

Tulsa does at the least return Sam Griffin, who, while a little in over his head as a #1 option, was still important to bring back. He scores reasonably efficiently on his usage but does nothing else of value on the court, but I do think you have to credit Konkol for pulling him out of the portal and re-recruiting him. You would have liked to have seen more transfers like Rob Lanier was able to secure in his first offseason. The talent isn’t much better than ECU but Konkol is at least a proven difference-making coach, I think that keeps Tulsa out of the basement.

11. East Carolina

ECU	183 NET
Ludgy Debaut	7-0	2.4ppg, 4.2rpg	11.8	Sr
Brandon Johnson	6-8	4.7ppg, 5.1rpg	16.4	So
Benjamin Bayela	6-6	10.5ppg, 6.1rpg (JUCO)		So
Quentin Diboundje	6-5	1.7ppg, 1.1rpg(@Tennesse)	20.8	So
Jaden Walker	6-5	2.2ppg, 1.0rpg(@Iowa State)	12.2	So
RJ Felton	6-3	5.1ppg, 1.6rpg	7.3	So
Javon Small	6-2	2.0ppg, 1.1apg	4.5	So
Wynston Tabbs	6-2	13.3ppg, 2.7rpg(@BC 2021)	13.2	Jr

For the 2nd season in a row the big boys have come for ECU’s best player, this time it was UConn taking Tristen Newton. Ultimately, that was probably unavoidable once the NIL back channels fired up. Losing Newton was a tough loss for a team that already wasn’t doing much (#183 NET). They lost almost everyone else of value too and have a 1st-year coach, Michael Schwartz, that will have to learn fast. It’s not a recipe for success, nor is the class he replaced them with. ECU managed to get a lot younger and less experienced. The one wildcard is Wynston Tabbs from Boston College. He’s yet to play a game for ECU and has missed the majority of his games since he has been in school. I don’t think I would put too many eggs in that basket at this point.